Among the many many burning questions on Netflix‘s potential acquisition of Warner Bros. is: What would occur to HBO Max? Would clients proceed to subscribe to each, or would it not finally roll into Netflix?
Not less than instantly, Netflix has mentioned HBO Max would proceed as a separate entity — however makes no guarantees that it wouldn’t finally be consumed into Netflix. HBO turning into a tile on Netflix, identical to Hulu being slowly taken over by Disney+, is a possible chance.
However right here’s one which nobody appears to be asking: What in regards to the linear HBO service? You recognize, the pioneering community that primarily ushered within the cable age when it launched in 1972? HBO, the channel that revolutionized “status TV” with “The Sopranos,” and every little thing that got here after that?
Even when HBO as a model survives this merger, the thought of HBO as a standalone enterprise could quickly be historical past. And it will additionally just about double because the final nail within the coffin of “premium cable” as we knew it.
Already, Paramount has destroyed the one-vibrant Showtime model — first, by killing the standalone Showtime app, after which even renaming to remaining linear channel to “Paramount + With Showtime.” Now, there’s no Showtime infrastructure to talk of, and the cabler’s final remaining exhibits — just like the “Dexter” spinoffs and “Yellowjackets” — are as a substitute promoted as Paramount+ originals. Showtime, a flagship premium cable community that first launched in 1976, could reside on in bits of leftover branding in some corners of the media universe, however it’s principally useless.
FX wasn’t formally a premium cable community because it’s free on fundamental cable, however it developed right into a “premium” model, impressed by the success of HBO in delivering its personal food plan of high-end, high quality fare. Like HBO, FX modified the programming sport and for a second made fundamental cable a scorching place for creators to convey their ardour tasks, as did AMC in the course of the “Mad Males” and “Breaking Unhealthy” eras. FX nonetheless exists, however principally as a tile on Hulu. Not all of FX’s fare airs on the linear channel — which now principally schedules library films and repeats. When individuals discuss “FX,” they’re not speaking in regards to the linear channel anymore. (In the meantime, with the writing on the wall for linear, AMC has tried emigrate its viewers to its AMC+ streamer, with combined outcomes.)
Among the many smaller premium channels, MGM+ stays a linear/stream hybrid below Amazon possession, whereas Starz additionally packages a linear suite of channels, even because it prefers to give attention to its digital platform. However each would like you consider them as digital manufacturers, not legacy TV channels.
And that brings us to HBO. Even below Warner Bros. Discovery, the pay cabler has been pulling again on its linear choices: Earlier this yr, the corporate shut down multiplex networks together with HBO Household, ThrillerMax, MovieMax and OuterMax.
These cuts got here from an organization with management that was rooted in cable. Think about, now, how a lot persistence Netflix’s Ted Sarandos may need for what’s left within the HBO linear steady. (The reply? Not a lot.) Sarandos and Netflix have by no means proven any curiosity in proudly owning or working linear properties, in spite of everything. Netflix purposely didn’t embody the channels being spun off by the “Discovery” portion of “Warner Bros. Discovery” in its bid. So how lengthy would it not tolerate programming HBO linear, fairly than forcing these remaining clients to maneuver to digital?
Proper now, HBO linear subscribers nonetheless get free entry to HBO Max — which was a part of the promise of HBO Max when it initially launched in 2020. Would Netflix put up with these hybrid linear clients accessing the streamer that means? In relation to slicing prices within the merger, will Netflix resolve having a linear community infrastructure nonetheless is sensible, or will or not it’s a simple factor to whack off the spreadsheets and the underside line?
Identical to the sunsetting period of fundamental cable, the destiny of premium cable maybe had already been sealed it doesn’t matter what. In 2024, HBO averaged simply 154,000 viewers in primetime — down 7% from the earlier yr, however an enormous slide from latest years (together with 726,000. in 2017) as viewership continued its migration to streaming.
Netflix launched its authentic programming efforts within the early 2010s by emulating the HBO mannequin — beginning with high-end fare like “Home of Playing cards.” It needed to out-HBO HBO, and finally obtained so huge that it went from boutique to warehouse. Now, Netflix has out-broadcast the published networks as a substitute, whereas HBO stays a high-end bespoke vacation spot, however totally on HBO Max. Netflix garners a big awards nomination haul because of its sheer output quantity, however HBO additionally dominates because of its high quality curation.
If Netflix does purchase Warner Bros., it will likely be solely a matter of time till premium cable dies. HBO could be only one extra model so as to add to the Netflix’s bulging menu, alongside the WWE, the NFL and extra. The narrative of Netflix vs. HBO has dominated over TV discourse, notably within the awards area, for greater than a decade. However now Netflix may not need to be HBO anymore, nor would it not need to beat it — as a substitute, it will simply eat it.
