After the Packers handed the Lions one other disappointing Thanksgiving—finishing the season sweep and flipping the script after Dan Campbell beforehand had Matt LaFleur’s quantity, whereas including insult to damage with fourth-down success—Detroit now finds itself backed in opposition to the wall when it comes to postseason survival. As Campbell put it this week, “time’s working out,” and the Lions should discover a option to win the sport in entrance of them.
Following losses in three of their final 5 video games for the reason that bye, Detroit now faces a red-hot Cowboys group within the Lions’ third straight dwelling sport. Because the Lions have slid to their lowest level of the season, the Cowboys, in the meantime, have gained three straight to re-enter the NFC playoff image, together with assertion wins over the Eagles and Chiefs—two groups that handed Detroit a butt-kicking. The frequent narrative from nationwide media being two ship’s passing within the evening in arguably the perfect “Thursday Night time Soccer” matchup of the season.
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Regardless of their struggles, the Lions nonetheless deserve some religion. They’re undermanned on offense, however they have been in Week 14 TNF final season as nicely—and nonetheless discovered a option to intestine out a win in Inexperienced Bay whereas decimated on protection.
This preview dives into 5 key statistical matchups that may decide whether or not Detroit can come out on prime in one other chapter of the never-boring Cowboys-Lions collection.
Notice: Except in any other case indicated, all statistics are sourced from NFL Professional, TruMedia, FTN Fantasy, or Professional Soccer Reference.
Cowboys’ three-headed monster
Chances are you’ll be shocked to listen to that I’m not referring to the Cowboys’ three-headed monster that you simply’re considering of in Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, and George Pickens—however their newly fashioned inside line of defense trio.
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The newly acquired All-Professional Quinnen Williams, just lately added nostril deal with Kenny Clark, and Osa Odighizuwa (who signed a four-year, $80M extension in March) have remodeled the guts of Dallas’ protection. Together with the return of DeMarvion Overshown and the addition of Logan Wilson, that group has fueled the unit’s turnaround and up to date successful streak. All three inside linemen are averaging no less than 39.3 snaps per sport over that span.
They’ve successfully completed what the Lions have been making an attempt to copy: balancing heavy inside snap counts amongst Alim McNeill, DJ Reader, Tyleik Williams, and Roy Lopez. Within the course of, Dallas has additionally freed up its deep edge rotation of Donovan Ezeiruaku, Jadeveon Clowney, Sam Williams, James Houston IV, and Dante Fowler by resetting the roles and placing these gamers additional in positions to succeed.
One in all Detroit’s most shocking shortcomings this season has been how typically its offensive line—significantly on the within — has been overpowered on the level of assault. Bodily, schematically, and from a communication standpoint, cohesion hasn’t at all times been there.
The Lions are:
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4-0 after they common greater than 2.0 yards earlier than contact per carry
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4-0 when Jared Goff shouldn’t be sacked
No unit holds extra affect over Detroit’s destiny than the offensive line—and Thursday evening will current considered one of its hardest challenges but, just like the Eagles matchup earlier this season.
Cowboys’ protection — Weeks 1–10 vs. Weeks 11–13
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6.1 yards/play (twenty ninth) → 5.3 (T-Seventeenth)
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51.9% success price (thirty first) → 46.0% (T-Sixteenth)
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-0.15 EPA/play (thirty first) → +0.10 (twenty first)
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13.0% explosive play price (twenty eighth) → 11.4% (Twentieth)
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1.83 YBC/rush (twenty eighth) → 0.32 (third)
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39.7% stress price (ninth) → 41.7% (third)
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52.6% third-down price (thirty second) → 35.1% (ninth)
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1.2% turnover price (twenty seventh) → 1.7% (t-Twentieth)
Whereas red-zone protection stays a difficulty, Dallas has made notable strides throughout the board. General, they spent a lot of the first two and a half months defensively as an enormous legal responsibility, actually solely the Bengals protection being worse, and now they’ve changed into a reliable, succesful protection that may present their harmful offense with a reliable counterpart unit. The Cowboys’ protection, bolstered by Williams, are nicely outfitted to offer constant pocket stress, throttle speeding lanes, and—most impressively—now can cease offenses of their tracks on third down after being a pushover.
They now drive a three-and-out on 35.5% of possessions over the past three weeks (eleventh)—practically a ten% bounce from earlier within the season. Their most spectacular displaying got here on Thanksgiving, forcing punts on 5 of Kansas Metropolis’s ultimate seven drives.
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Detroit can not enable this defensive entrance to impose its will early and flip one other sport into uphill, chase mode. Doubtlessly with out Amon-Ra St. Brown, Campbell’s offense—in his fifth week calling performs—should discover reliable manufacturing. This may check the Lions’ means to adapt, particularly with Graham Glasgow again in, Kayode Awosika (or his substitute) filling in, and Tate Ratledge persevering with to achieve expertise.
Boxing up half a dozen
Detroit’s offensive personnel is acquainted with Cowboys defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus. The final time they noticed the previous Bears head coach, he was despatched to the unemployment line not lengthy after.
Not like his Bears items, which hardly ever used gentle packing containers, Eberflus’ Cowboys are working a lighter entrance on 48.2% of opponent rushes (eleventh). During the last three weeks, that quantity has jumped to 60.2%—second-highest within the league—following the addition of Quinnen Williams.
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Nevertheless, they’ve struggled when doing so.
Cowboys gentle field run protection (Weeks 11–13)
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45.0% speeding offensive success price (twenty first)
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11.5% explosive run price (twenty second)
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1.77 yards earlier than contact/rush (thirteenth)
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4.42 yards after contact/rush (twenty eighth)
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3.8% run stuff price (twenty fourth)
Sarcastically, when Dallas masses the field (7+ defenders), they’ve the perfect yards per rush, speeding success price, EPA per rush, explosive run price, yards earlier than contact per rush (-1.07), and run stuff price within the league (on 27 such carries) in that very same span—an enormous distinction.
The information exhibits a transparent cut up as of late: when Dallas commits additional our bodies to the field, it turns into one of many league’s finest run defenses. When it performs gentle, that benefit disappears.
Detroit should exploit this tendency via personnel and design, making life simpler for his or her offensive line’s assignments and creating wider lanes for Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery. Permit Ratledge and Penei Sewell to anchor the fitting aspect and let the run sport’s explosiveness take middle stage. Success on early downs would additionally give Goff cleaner, extra manageable passing conditions—particularly within the continued adjustment to life after Sam LaPorta and if St. Brown is unavailable.
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Further cross rushers vs. Prescott
After a shaky 2024, Dak Prescott is taking part in a few of the finest soccer of his profession. The additions of George Pickens and Javonte Williams—each having fun with profession years together with improvement alongside the younger offensive line have revived Dallas’ offense underneath new coordinator Klayton Adams.
Like Goff, Prescott has persistently punished groups for blitzing him. Because the break, he’s been surgical.
Prescott vs. the blitz — Weeks 11–13
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129.3 passer ranking (1st)
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81.3% completion share (1st)
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3 passing touchdowns (2nd)
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66.7% passing success price (2nd)
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21.2% explosive cross price (fifth)
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50.0% stress price (twenty eighth)
Merely sending additional rushers isn’t sufficient; the cross rush have to be paired with sensible deception and tight protection.
After blitzing on the fourth-highest price of dropbacks final season (33.7%), the Lions have dialed it again to 25.0% (18th) this season, with a small uptick to 29.4% (tenth) over the past three weeks. They nonetheless personal the seventh-best passing success price when blitzing (41.5%), together with an 8.5% sack price (twelfth).
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After Jameis Winston torched Detroit for 12.1 yards per try and a landing on 11 blitzed dropbacks (regardless of a 63.6% stress price), the Lions responded higher in opposition to Jordan Love. On Thanksgiving, Love went simply 3-of-8 for 11 yards when dealing with Kelvin Sheppard’s stress packages.
Discovering the fitting recipe for sending second-level defenders—whereas nonetheless conserving sufficient our bodies in protection—might be a improvement that might decide whether or not Detroit disrupts Dallas’ rhythm or performs proper into it.
Movement granted
One avenue that first-year head coach Brian Schottenheimer and first-year offensive coordinator Klayton Adams have leaned into is movement—not simply pre-snap, however movement on the snap—to attempt to create leverage and confusion for Dallas’ playmakers
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Dak Prescott passing with movement at snap
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57 passing first downs (third)
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98.7 passer ranking (Sixteenth)
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67.1% completion share (Sixteenth)
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45.3% passing success price (twenty seventh)
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8.2% explosive play price (twenty fourth)
Dallas is utilizing movement on the snap for Prescott greater than any quarterback in any season over the past three years, however they aren’t having overwhelming success with it. The truth is, by most measures, Prescott is definitely extra environment friendly with out it.
Nonetheless, the Lions have to be ready to defend it—particularly in man protection—the place timing, communication, and spacing might be confused.
Detroit is barely dealing with 7.8 dropbacks per sport in opposition to movement on the snap and is permitting only a 58.5% completion price (sixth) and a 47.9% success price (thirteenth) in opposition to it. Nevertheless, they’re permitting 8.0 yards per try (twenty seventh) and a 13.8% explosive cross price (thirtieth) in these conditions. The Lions’ protection has been sturdy on a down-to-down foundation, however huge performs proceed to show a recurring vulnerability
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If Detroit can keep disciplined via the attention sweet—speaking cleanly and passing off routes with out hesitation—it forces Dallas again into straight dropback soccer, the place this Lions protection might be extra comfy. Stopping the Cowboys from counting on movement at snap is without doubt one of the keys to not letting the Cowboys management the sport.
Hutch hunch
Even elite gamers undergo down stretches, particularly after they’re working their means again from a big leg damage. A hunch doesn’t all of the sudden erase expertise or high-level effort due to a brand new contract. Aidan Hutchinson hasn’t performed to his or the group’s customary over the past month, nevertheless it feels much more like a short-term dip than any long-term decline. If something, he seems like a quiet volcano able to erupt.
He’ll get the possibility to do this in opposition to the identical franchise that his season ended in opposition to final 12 months—and a quarterback he’s traditionally handled like a shrimp prepared for the barbie. Towards Dallas over the past three seasons, Hutchinson has handled Prescott like one thing on the tip of a skewer: 11 tackles (8 solo), 5.5 sacks, 6 tackles for loss, 15 complete pressures, and a pressured fumble. Chef Hutch has already chewed this group up, and now he has one other inviting matchup on the sting.
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With second-year left deal with Tyler Guyton out, Hutchinson will see a mixture of former seventh-rounder Nate Thomas after which proper deal with Terence Steele. Steele has been inconsistent this season regardless of a stronger stretch throughout Dallas’ latest run, whereas Thomas has largely struggled. In two spot begins and three reduction appearances, Thomas is Professional Soccer Focus’ Eightieth-graded deal with (45.4 general grade) amongst 83 qualifiers, permitting 11 complete pressures and two penalties on 129 pass-blocking reps, with a 94.9 pass-blocking effectivity that ranks 68th.
