The System 1 drivers’ championship will probably be determined in a three-way showdown that takes place this weekend on Abu Dhabi’s Yas Marina circuit.
Lando Norris leads Pink Bull’s Max Verstappen by 12 factors and McLaren team-mate Oscar Piastri by 16 as they head to a observe that has hosted quite a few dramatic climaxes up to now.
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This weekend has all of the elements to be one other.
Norris, along with his important factors benefit, goes into the weekend as an on-paper favorite.
However Verstappen has received 5 of the eight races earlier than Abu Dhabi and is in a far easier place than two drivers working out of the identical McLaren storage.
Who has the perfect automotive?
McLaren’s drivers have mixed for a complete rating of 800 factors within the constructors’ championship, permitting them to seal that title with six races of the season to spare [EPA]
The McLaren has been the quickest automotive on common over the season. It has a big benefit on common qualifying tempo – 0.274 seconds over the season, and 0.203secs over the previous eight races.
However wins are break up evenly between all three drivers this 12 months – Norris, Verstappen and Piastri all have seven every. The opposite two grand prix victories have been taken by Mercedes’ George Russell.
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McLaren have dominated the constructors’ championship, which they clinched on the Singapore Grand Prix on the primary weekend in October, with six races remaining.
However that’s reflection of getting two aggressive drivers in a constantly race-winning automotive. No different crew has had the posh of these two elements collectively.
Verstappen, against this, has scored greater than 92% of all his crew’s factors this 12 months – team-mate Yuki Tsunoda has been nowhere close to him and of no assist by any means within the Dutchman’s title marketing campaign, and has been dropped by Pink Bull for subsequent season because of this.
Competitiveness has ebbed and flowed by the season, and every automotive has particular strengths.
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Verstappen received the Qatar Grand Prix final weekend solely due to McLaren’s technique error. In any other case, that observe’s long-duration medium- and high-speed corners had been excellent McLaren territory.
Abu Dhabi additionally has some lengthy corners – particularly the hairpin on to the primary lengthy straight and the lengthy Flip 9 on the finish of the second primary straight.
However the McLaren will not be at its greatest within the type of short-duration, 90-degree corners that comprise the ultimate sector across the marina and lodge, or when braking into chicanes.
And the Pink Bull has the perfect straight-line pace.
So, when it comes to observe traits, the struggle appears finely balanced.
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McLaren have taken pole place on the previous 4 races. Over the season, Norris and Verstappen are tied on seven poles every, with Piastri scoring six.
Who has the perfect historical past on this observe?
Verstappen has received 4 instances in Abu Dhabi, taking each race victory from 2020-23.
However his win in 2021 was extraordinarily controversial – that was the title showdown with Lewis Hamilton’s Mercedes, the place Verstappen received solely after the then-race director made up the foundations throughout a late safety-car interval.
It is also not a good comparability between the three drivers.
For a begin, that is solely Piastri’s third season in F1. Norris has been in F1 since 2019 and Verstappen since 2015.
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However Norris didn’t have a fair vaguely aggressive automotive till 2023, whereas Verstappen has been successful races on and off since 2016.
And Norris was dominant on his method to victory in Abu Dhabi final 12 months.
Type
Competitiveness has fluctuated by the season, between each drivers and groups.
Within the first half of the season, the Pink Bull was aggressive with the McLaren solely on circuits with a predominance of high-speed corners, equivalent to Japan, Saudi Arabia and Imola.
Piastri was the stronger McLaren driver on stability over the primary 14 races of the season, whereas Norris struggled with sure parts of the automotive’s behaviour.
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However Norris has come on sturdy because the summer season break, overhauling what had been a 34-point lead for Piastri on the finish of August.
Pink Bull had a droop in kind by the summer season, by the tip of which Verstappen was 104 factors off the championship lead.
However tweaks to their automotive for the Italian Grand Prix at the start of September remodeled their season, and Verstappen went on a run of three wins and a second place in 4 races by September and October.
Previously two races, Verstappen was the stronger in Las Vegas and McLaren in Qatar. However Abu Dhabi is a really completely different observe from each of these.
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Staff dynamic
McLaren’s process is the extra difficult. They’ve two drivers in rivalry and have pledged to permit them each to compete pretty till one is now not in rivalry for the championship.
However the crew’s clear said purpose is for one among their drivers to win the title – and so they do not thoughts which. So do not rule out crew ways of 1 type or one other at McLaren.
For instance, if Verstappen is successful and Piastri within the high three with Norris fourth, that might make the Dutchman champion. But when Piastri dropped again to let Norris into the highest three, Norris would win the title.
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In these circumstances, it will be anticipated for McLaren to ask Piastri to assist Norris – however solely at such a degree when it is clear the Australian’s hopes had been over.
At Pink Bull, Verstappen is on his personal. Besides, that’s, if a McLaren finds itself one way or the other behind one of many different three Pink Bull-owned automobiles – Tsunoda and the 2 Racing Bulls of Isack Hadjar and Liam Lawson.
If that is the case, anticipate them to make themselves as laborious as attainable to go – as Sergio Perez did to Hamilton in 2021, finally taking part in a decisive function in how the race performed out.
Mentality
Can he make it 5 titles? If he does, Max Verstappen will equal Michael Schumacher’s report for consecutive drivers’ championships, set between 2000-04 [Getty Images]
The stress is actually better on Norris than anybody else.
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All 12 months, McLaren have seemed just like the crew who will ship the drivers’ title, and he’s the person main the championship.
On the identical time, that is his first likelihood to win the title, and McLaren’s first drivers’ title likelihood since Hamilton received in 2008.
Sure, Hamilton was in mathematical rivalry in 2010, however 24 factors behind with solely 25 obtainable, so probably not within the image.
As well as, McLaren have been basically restructured since then, and whereas crew principal Andrea Stella has been concerned in title fights beforehand – working with Michael Schumacher, Kimi Raikkonen and Fernando Alonso – a lot of the crew haven’t.
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Their relative rawness has proven at instances this 12 months, particularly in Qatar, after they had been the one crew to not take the chance to pit beneath a security automotive, and misplaced the win because of this.
There’ll probably have been some soul-searching and in-depth evaluation up to now days as a consequence. Some anxiousness and nervousness can be comprehensible.
Pink Bull and Verstappen, in the meantime, are totally versed on this scenario. They’ve received the previous 4 drivers’ titles and are a ruthless, finely honed successful machine.
And as a crew and driver who’ve completed it earlier than, and as well as didn’t anticipate to be on this scenario, the stress is off.
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Verstappen has repeatedly stated “it will not change my life” whether or not he wins or not.
After Qatar, he stated: “It reveals every part is feasible. We’ve nothing to lose so I simply go there and attempt to maximise the automotive and hope we generally is a little bit extra aggressive than right here however we’ll see.”
